New Poll Puts Conservatives Ahead for First Time — But Liberals Still on Track to Win

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The general election is scheduled for April 28, 2025, following the official campaign kickoff on March 23. Since then, more than two dozen national polls have been published by major firms, revealing a consistently strong start for the Liberals — but with signs of Conservative resilience beginning to emerge.

Mark Carney vs Pierre Poilievre

For the first time since the start of Canada’s 2025 federal election campaign, a major poll has shown Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives edging ahead of the governing Liberals — a potential turning point in an otherwise Liberal-dominated race.

A newly released survey by Innovative Research Group puts the Conservatives at 38%, narrowly ahead of Mark Carney’s Liberals at 37%. Though the result is within the margin of error, it marks the first time in over two dozen national polls since March 23 that the Tories have held the lead.

“Innovative’s data shows the Conservatives have narrowed the Liberal momentum gap,” the firm stated. “The Liberal campaign is still scoring more points with more people, but their advantage is much smaller.”

Liberals Still Lead in Most Polls

Despite this surprise, the broader trend still favors the Liberals. A three-day rolling poll by Nanos Research, completed on April 2 and commissioned by CTV News and The Globe and Mail, shows:

• Liberals: 46%

• Conservatives: 37%

• NDP: 9%

• Bloc Québécois: 6%

• Green Party: 2%

• People’s Party of Canada: 1%

Nanos' chief data scientist Nik Nanos observed: “Over the first five days of data collection, the Liberals climbed steadily from 42% to 46%, while the NDP fell into single digits — a major setback for a party that once held Official Opposition status.”

Other surveys from Leger, Mainstreet Research, Pollara, Ekos, Angus Reid, and Liaison Strategies continue to show a consistent Liberal lead, ranging from 6 to 9 points.

Election Date and Vote Efficiency

The federal election is scheduled for April 28, 2025, and vote efficiency — how support translates into seats — remains a key factor. Even a tie in national vote share, as shown in a recent Abacus Data poll (39% for both Liberals and Conservatives), could result in a Liberal minority government due to their stronger performance in urban and suburban ridings.

In the last two federal elections, the Conservatives won the popular vote but failed to form government, a scenario polling experts say could repeat this year.

Who is Preferred Prime Minister? Carney’s Clear Advantage

Asked who they would prefer as Prime Minister:

• Mark Carney: 50%

• Pierre Poilievre: 33%

• Jagmeet Singh: 5%

“Carney’s lead as preferred Prime Minister is 17 points — almost double his party’s ballot lead,” said Nik Nanos. “That’s a powerful advantage, especially in a campaign shaped by national identity and foreign policy tensions.”

Analysts suggest that U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on Canadian auto exports have helped Carney frame the Liberals as defenders of national economic sovereignty, drawing parallels to Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s successful positioning against Trump-style politics.

Read more: Who is Mark Carney? Biography, Education, Wife, and Net Worth

Regional Dynamics: Liberals Lead Everywhere Except the Prairies

• Ontario: Liberals 51%, Conservatives 37%

• Quebec: Liberals 51%, Conservatives 18%

• Prairies: Conservatives 64%, Liberals 23%

The Liberals’ strength in central Canada — particularly in vote-rich Ontario and Quebec — gives them a structural advantage that national polling averages often underestimate.

Gender Gap Favors Liberals

• Women: 52% Liberal, 29% Conservative

• Men: 40% Liberal, 45% Conservative

Support from women is proving to be a major asset for the Liberals, especially in suburban battlegrounds.

Outlook: Liberal Win Still Most Likely

Despite the breakthrough Innovative Research poll, modeling by The Economist still gives the Liberals an 83% chance of forming the next government. Whether that’s a majority or minority hinges on how regional trends evolve in the final stretch of the campaign.

But if the Conservative numbers continue to rise — especially outside their Prairie strongholds — this could yet become a much tighter race than expected.

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