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Syria, a country in the Middle East, has endured over a decade of devastating civil war since 2011. The rapid collapse of Syria can be attributed to a combination of political instability, social issues, and international intervention. President Bashar al-Assad, once seen as a potential reformer, became a central figure in the crisis. The future of Syria remains uncertain, facing enormous challenges in reconstruction, national unity, and foreign interference.

Syrians celebrate end of half a century of Assad family rule

1. Why Did Syria Collapse So Quickly?

1.1. Political Causes

• Long-standing dictatorship:

  Syria has been ruled by the Assad family since 1971. Hafez al-Assad (1971–2000) established an authoritarian regime, and his son Bashar al-Assad continued this legacy after assuming power in 2000. Political freedoms were heavily suppressed, fueling widespread dissatisfaction.

• Corruption and poor governance:

  Rampant corruption within the government and mismanagement of the economy left the population struggling. Wealth and resources were concentrated in the hands of the elite, while millions lived in poverty. In 2010, Syria ranked 127th out of 178 countries in the Corruption Perceptions Index by Transparency International.

• Arab Spring uprisings:

  Inspired by the Arab Spring protests that swept across the region in 2011, Syrians demanded reforms, political freedoms, and an end to Assad’s rule. Instead of addressing grievances, Assad’s regime responded with violent crackdowns, igniting a full-scale civil war.

1.2. Social and Economic Causes

• Widespread inequality:

  Syria's economic disparity between urban elites and rural communities created deep resentment. Rural areas, which make up about 40% of Syria's population, were largely neglected in terms of development and infrastructure.

• Severe drought (2006–2010):

  A prolonged drought devastated Syria’s agricultural sector, displacing around 1.5 million farmers and rural workers to overcrowded urban centers. This exacerbated economic challenges and heightened social tensions.

• Unemployment and poverty:

  By 2010, Syria’s unemployment rate exceeded 20%, and approximately 30% of the population lived below the poverty line. The government’s inability to address these issues fueled unrest.

1.3. International Factors

• Proxy war dynamics:

  Syria became a battleground for competing global powers. Russia and Iran supported Assad’s regime, while the United States, Turkey, and Gulf states backed various opposition groups. This external interference prolonged and intensified the conflict.

• Rise of ISIS:

  The Islamic State (ISIS) exploited Syria's chaos to establish a caliphate in 2014, controlling up to 33% of Syrian territory at its peak. The fight against ISIS further fragmented the country.

Syrian opposition fighters celebrate in Damascus, waving the flag of the country's anti-Assad opposition

1.4. Casualties and Destruction

• Human cost:

  The Syrian civil war has caused the deaths of an estimated 500,000 people, with another 6.8 million internally displaced and 5.6 million refugees fleeing to neighboring countries such as Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan (UNHCR, 2023).

• Economic toll:

  The war has reduced Syria’s GDP by over 60% since 2010, and rebuilding the country is estimated to require $250–$400 billion.

2. The Fate of Bashar al-Assad

2.1. Assad’s Current Position

Despite years of war, Bashar al-Assad remains in power, primarily due to strong support from Russia and Iran.

• Russia's intervention:

  Russia's military intervention in 2015, including airstrikes and logistical support, played a decisive role in turning the tide of the war in Assad’s favor. Moscow continues to provide economic and political backing.

• Iran’s support:

  Iran has been a crucial ally, offering financial aid, deploying troops, and mobilizing militias such as Hezbollah to fight alongside Assad’s forces.

2.2. Accusations Against Assad

• War crimes:

  Assad’s regime has been accused of committing widespread human rights violations, including chemical attacks, targeting civilians, and operating detention centers where tens of thousands have been tortured or killed. The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) confirmed at least 17 chemical weapon attacks since 2014.

• International isolation:

  Assad faces extensive sanctions from the U.S. and the European Union. In 2023, Syria ranked among the world’s most sanctioned countries, further crippling its economy.

Others gleefully ransacked the presidential palace and residence after Assad and his family vanished, reportedly to find refuge with their ally Russia.

2.3. Assad’s Future Prospects

• Domestic dominance but reliant on allies:

  While Assad has regained control over about 70% of Syria, his regime heavily depends on Russia and Iran for military and economic support.

• Limited international legitimacy:

  Although some Arab states like the UAE and Saudi Arabia have recently moved toward normalizing relations with Assad, he remains largely isolated on the global stage. A return to full international recognition appears unlikely without significant political reforms.

3. Syria’s Future

3.1. Major Challenges

• Reconstruction costs:

  The UN estimates that rebuilding Syria could cost up to $400 billion. However, with ongoing sanctions and minimal foreign aid, the prospect of reconstruction remains bleak.

• Humanitarian crisis:

  More than 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line, and over 12 million people are food insecure. Access to healthcare, education, and basic services remains limited.

• Territorial fragmentation:

  Syria is divided into several zones of control:

  • Assad’s government controls the majority, including key cities like Damascus and Aleppo.
  • The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control the northeast.
  • Rebel groups, backed by Turkey, hold parts of the northwest.

3.2. Scenarios for the Future

1. Political resolution:

   A negotiated peace deal could pave the way for a transitional government and national reconciliation. However, deep divisions between factions make this scenario unlikely in the near term.

2. Prolonged conflict:

   The civil war could persist as long as regional and international powers continue to back opposing sides.

3. Status quo under Assad:

   Assad may retain power but face ongoing instability and limited international engagement, leaving Syria in a state of limbo.

3.3. The Role of International Powers

• Russia and Iran:

  Both countries will likely continue to exert significant influence over Syria’s political and economic future.

• The West:

  Sanctions from the U.S. and EU are unlikely to be lifted unless there are meaningful reforms or a political transition.

Syrians gather at Oranienplatz square in Berlin, Germany, waving opposition flags

4. FAQs (Frequently Asked Questions)

1. Why did Syria collapse so quickly?

Syria’s collapse resulted from authoritarian rule, economic mismanagement, drought, and the violent suppression of protests, compounded by international intervention.

2. Is Bashar al-Assad still in power?

Yes, Assad remains in power with strong backing from Russia and Iran.

3. How many people have been displaced by the conflict?

Over 13 million Syrians have been displaced, including 6.8 million internally and 5.6 million refugees abroad.

4. What role did ISIS play in Syria’s crisis?

ISIS took advantage of Syria’s chaos to seize territory and establish a caliphate, further destabilizing the country.

5. How much will it cost to rebuild Syria?

Estimates suggest $250–$400 billion is needed for reconstruction.

6. Why do Russia and Iran support Assad?

Russia seeks to maintain its influence in the Middle East and its military bases in Syria, while Iran views Syria as a key ally in its regional strategy.

7. Are there still active conflicts in Syria?

Yes, sporadic fighting continues, particularly in the northwest and areas with ISIS sleeper cells.

8. Can Syria achieve peace?

Peace is unlikely without a comprehensive political settlement and international cooperation, both of which remain elusive.

9. How are ordinary Syrians coping?

Most Syrians live in poverty, relying on humanitarian aid to survive. The situation is particularly dire in areas outside government control.

10. Will Assad be prosecuted for war crimes?

While there are calls for his prosecution, Assad remains shielded by allies like Russia, making accountability unlikely in the near term.