Fact-Check: Russian or Ukrainian Missile Brought Down Azerbaijan Plane

On December 25, 2024, Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, an Embraer 190 aircraft, crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, resulting in 38 fatalities among the 67 passengers and crew on board. The flight originated from Baku, Azerbaijan, and was destined for Grozny, Russia. Initial reports suggested various causes, including bird strikes and technical failures.

However, emerging evidence indicates that the aircraft may have been inadvertently struck by a Russian air defense missile.

Azerbaijan probe finds Russian missile caused deadly crash

Flight Path and Incident Overview

Approximately 80 minutes into the flight, while over Russian airspace near Grozny, the aircraft encountered difficulties. Survivors reported hearing a loud explosion, followed by rapid cabin depressurization.

The pilots attempted to divert the flight for an emergency landing but were reportedly denied permission to land at Russian airports, leading them to proceed toward Aktau. During this diversion, the aircraft exhibited erratic altitude changes, fluctuating by up to 8,000 feet, before ultimately crashing near Aktau International Airport.

Investigative Findings

Preliminary investigations have revealed damage to the aircraft consistent with shrapnel penetration. Photographs of the wreckage display perforations in the fuselage and tail section, suggesting an external explosion. Aviation security firm Osprey Flight Solutions assessed that the flight was likely downed by a Russian military air-defense system.

Additionally, reports indicate that the plane's GPS navigation systems experienced jamming over the Caspian Sea, complicating the crew's efforts to navigate and respond to the emergency.

Authorities from the three nations connected to the accident—Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia—urged the public to refrain from making assumptions about the crash until the investigations are complete.

Marat Karabayev, the minister of transportation for Kazakhstan, stated on Thursday that approximately forty-five minutes prior to the plane's crash, a signal from Russia informed a Kazakh control center that the flight was being diverted.

Following reports of bad weather, the crew chose to fly to Aktau, according to Karabayev, who also cited the Russian dispatcher as saying that the aircraft was having a control system failure. According to Karabayev, the dispatcher later claimed that a "oxygen tank exploded in the passenger cabin, causing passengers to lose consciousness."

According to Karabayev, the plane veered off course during the two landing approaches made by the Azerbaijan Airlines crew at Aktau airport and lost contact with Aktau dispatchers before crashing.

Russian Military Activity in the Region

At the time of the incident, Russian forces were actively engaging Ukrainian drones over the North Caucasus region. On the morning of the crash, Russian authorities reported shooting down multiple Ukrainian drones, including one over Vladikavkaz, west of Grozny.

This heightened military activity raises the possibility that Flight 8243 was misidentified as a hostile aircraft, leading to its targeting by air defense systems.

Russia Rejects Reports Of Missile Strike

Reports the following day indicated that the crash might have been caused by a Russian surface-to-air missile. It is said that the missile "accidentally fired" at the airplane. However, the Kremlin has denied this allegation and "warned against" such conjecture. According to unnamed sources cited by the pro-government Azerbaijani website Caliber, the plane was brought down by a missile from a Pantsir-S air defense system while the investigation is ongoing.

Trade Blame: Russia and Ukraine

Dmitry Yadrov, the head of Russia's civil aviation authority, implied that Grozny was being attacked by Ukrainian drones at the moment of the crash. Yadrov reported that the plane had made two failed landing attempts before veering to Aktau, and that the weather around Grozny was difficult due to the dense fog.

"Russia must be held responsible for the downing of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane," Ukraine's presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak said, blaming Russia in the meantime. My sympathies go out to the victims' families.

Citing flight safety concerns after the crash, Azerbaijan Airlines announced it would suspend flights to multiple Russian airports amid the ongoing blame game.

Official Responses

• Azerbaijan: Government sources have indicated that preliminary investigations point to the aircraft being struck by a Russian surface-to-air missile, specifically a Pantsir-S1 system. Azerbaijan has expressed concern over the incident and is deliberating on an appropriate response.

• Russia: Russian authorities initially attributed the crash to a bird strike. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that it is premature to draw conclusions and emphasized the need to await the results of the official investigation.

• Kazakhstan: Kazakh officials are collaborating with Azerbaijani and Russian counterparts in the investigation. They have recovered the aircraft's black boxes and are analyzing flight data to determine the exact cause of the crash.

Historical Context

This incident bears similarities to previous cases where civilian aircraft were unintentionally targeted by military forces.

Notably, in 2014, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine by a surface-to-air missile, resulting in the loss of all 298 passengers and crew. Such tragedies underscore the risks posed to civilian aviation in conflict zones or areas with active military operations.

Conclusion

While the official investigation is ongoing, current evidence suggests that Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 may have been inadvertently targeted and struck by a Russian air defense missile amid active military operations against Ukrainian drones. This hypothesis is supported by damage patterns on the aircraft, survivor testimonies, and the geopolitical context at the time of the incident.

A comprehensive and transparent investigation is essential to determine the exact cause and to prevent similar tragedies in the future.

Plane Crashes in Kazakhstan with 72 on Board in Christmas Day: 29 Survived In a terrible crash landing in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day, a passenger plane struck the ground in a fireball.

Azerbaijan Airlines plane crashes: More than 30 feared dead 67 people, including five crew members, were on board the plane

Fact-Check: 'Bullet Holes' in Crashed Azerbaijan Plane New footage has emerged from the scene of the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer E190AR crash, showing the pockmarked wreckage of the plane after it made an ...