Fact-Check: 'Bullet Holes' in Crashed Azerbaijan Plane

Update: The cause of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash remains unknown, the chairman of Kazakhstan's senate stated Thursday.

"None of these nations are interested in concealing information, including Kazakhstan, Russia, and Azerbaijan. The public will have access to all information," stated Ashimbayev Maulen.

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On December 25, 2024, an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer E190AR, operating as Flight J2-8243, tragically crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, resulting in 38 fatalities and 29 survivors. According to Azerbaijan Airlines, 37 passengers were Azerbaijani citizens. There were also 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakhstani and three Kyrgyzstani citizens.

This incident has sparked widespread speculation and media coverage, particularly due to unusual damage patterns on the aircraft’s fuselage and its proximity to regions with heightened military activity. Below, we provide a detailed analysis based on verified reports and official statements.

Holes in the fuselage of crashed plane suspected to be 'bullet holes'

Flight Details and Circumstances Leading to the Crash

The Embraer E190AR departed from Baku, Azerbaijan, bound for Grozny, Russia. Due to adverse weather conditions, including heavy fog at Grozny Airport, the flight was diverted to Aktau International Airport in Kazakhstan. During its approach for an emergency landing, the aircraft crashed approximately 1.8 miles from the airport.

Initial reports suggested the possibility of a bird strike causing the crash. However, aviation experts have raised doubts about this explanation, noting that bird strikes typically do not lead to such catastrophic outcomes. This has added to the urgency of the ongoing investigations.

Damage and Speculation: Was the Aircraft Targeted?

The damage patterns on the aircraft’s fuselage—specifically punctures resembling shrapnel or ballistic impacts—have fueled speculation that the plane may have been mistakenly targeted. This theory gained traction due to the crash’s timing, which coincided with heightened military tensions in the region following Ukrainian drone attacks in southern Russia.

Some analysts have proposed that the aircraft was misidentified as a military target by Russian air defenses or drones.

British media outlets and social platforms amplified these claims, citing the following factors:

• Proximity to Conflict Zones: The crash occurred in an area near regions of active military operations.

• Nature of Damage: Observers noted that the punctures in the fuselage were inconsistent with mechanical failure or debris impact from a breakup.

• Context of Regional Tensions: Speculation has linked the crash to the ongoing conflict and heightened vigilance by military forces in the area.

Video - 'Bullet holes' on crashed Azerbaijan Airlines plane prompts fears aircraft was 'shot down':

Euronews has reported information from official sources involved in the crash investigation, indicating that as the flight approached Grozny—its intended destination—surviving passengers described hearing an explosion followed by what appeared to be shrapnel striking the plane and damaging its fuselage.

This account aligns with a report from Azerbaijan-based international news channel AnewZ, which cited a Russian military blogger suggesting that the damage observed on the aircraft could indicate it was inadvertently hit by an air-defense missile system.

Grozny is a heavily fortified city, as Chechnya and forces loyal to Ramzan Kadyrov play a critical role in supporting the Kremlin during Russia's ongoing military operations. This strategic importance makes the Chechen capital a plausible target for Ukrainian drone activity.

Official Investigations and Statements

The Azerbaijan Airlines Christmas Day plane crash that killed at least 38 people is being investigated

In response to these allegations, Azerbaijani and Kazakhstani authorities launched comprehensive investigations. Initial findings have pointed toward mechanical failure as the likely cause of the crash, with the following key points highlighted:

• Engine Malfunction and Fire: Preliminary analysis indicates a catastrophic engine failure, possibly exacerbated by a mid-air fire. Signs of material fatigue and overheating were observed in engine components.

• Flight Data and Black Box Analysis: The aircraft’s black boxes have been recovered and are being analyzed. The cockpit voice recorder (CVR) captured conversations between the pilots discussing engine anomalies shortly before the crash.

• Debris Impact Patterns: Experts argued that the punctures in the fuselage could have been caused by debris from the disintegration of the aircraft, rather than an external attack.

• Weather Conditions: Severe turbulence and adverse weather likely contributed to the series of events leading to the crash.

At a news conference, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev cautioned against premature speculation regarding the cause of the crash, emphasizing that adverse weather conditions had necessitated a change in the aircraft's planned route.

“The information I have received indicates that the plane altered its course from Baku to Grozny due to deteriorating weather and was redirected to Aktau airport, where it tragically crashed during landing,” he stated.

Embraer has yet to issue a response to inquiries made early Wednesday. Azerbaijan Airlines, in a statement, pledged to keep the public informed as developments unfold and symbolically replaced its social media banners with a solemn black background.

Fact-Checking and Independent Analysis

Independent aviation and military experts have examined the available evidence to evaluate the credibility of various claims:

• Ballistic Impact Patterns: While some damage appeared to resemble shrapnel or bullet marks, a detailed analysis revealed no definitive entry and exit patterns consistent with gunfire or missile strikes.

• Drone Misidentification: Civilian aircraft emit clear transponder signals, making misidentification by military drones highly unlikely. No evidence has surfaced to suggest that Russian drones were involved in the incident.

• Comparative Cases: Similar damage patterns have been observed in previous crashes caused by structural failure or debris impact during breakup, lending weight to the mechanical failure hypothesis.

Broader Implications

The crash of Flight J2-8243 underscores the risks associated with operating civilian flights near conflict zones. It also highlights the importance of robust investigative processes to counteract misinformation and ensure accurate reporting. The rapid spread of unverified theories on social media emphasizes the need for clear and timely communication from authorities.

For Azerbaijan Airlines and the affected families, this tragedy serves as a solemn reminder of the critical importance of safety protocols and transparency in aviation operations.

Conclusion

As of now, official findings strongly point to mechanical failure as the primary cause of the crash. While damage to the fuselage raised initial suspicions of an external attack, thorough investigations and evidence analysis have yet to substantiate these claims. Further updates are expected as authorities complete their review of the black box data and other critical evidence.

In the meantime, sensational theories must be tempered with evidence-based conclusions. The victims and their families deserve an accurate and transparent account of the events to honor their memory and prevent future tragedies.

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