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Overview: What to Expect This Winter

Winter 2025–26 in the United States is forecast to be milder than average in many southern and eastern states, while colder and snowier than usual for northern interior and mountain regions. The first snowfall is expected to arrive on time or slightly later in most areas, with early snow limited to high elevations and northern states.

Major drivers of this winter’s pattern include a developing La Niña, jet stream behavior, and the potential influence of polar vortex disruptions.

First Snowfall Forecast for Winter 2025‑26
First Snowfall Forecast for Winter 2025‑26

Key Climate Signals

1. La Niña Watch

Current models show a high probability (70%+) of La Niña developing by late fall 2025. La Niña winters often bring cooler, wetter conditions to the Northwest and warmer, drier winters to the South. It also tends to shift the storm track northward, enhancing snowfall for parts of the Great Lakes, Northeast, and northern Rockies.

2. Temperature Outlook

NOAA’s long-range forecast calls for above-average winter temperatures across much of the South, Southeast, and East Coast. Near- to below-average temperatures are expected in northern tier states and especially in higher elevation zones across the West and Pacific Northwest.

3. Snowfall Trends

While warmer conditions could delay snow in some regions, above-average snowfall is forecast for:

  • The Great Lakes

  • Interior Northeast

  • Northern Plains

  • Mountain West (Rockies, Cascades)

Below-average snowfall is likely in southern California, desert Southwest, and Gulf states.

Winter 2025-26 Cold Severity Forecast by City
Winter 2025-26 Cold Severity Forecast by City

First Snowfall Forecast: Regional Overview

Region Typical First Snowfall Forecast for 2025–26
Rockies & High Elevations (CO, UT, MT) Late September to mid-October On-time or slightly early due to elevation and cold air mass flow
Great Lakes & Upper Midwest Late October to early November Slightly later than average in lowlands; earlier in northern zones
Northeast (NY, VT, ME, MA) Late October to mid-November Slightly delayed start; more snow expected mid to late season
Pacific Northwest (WA, OR) Early November First snow possible by mid-November; cold conditions favorable
Mid-Atlantic & Appalachians Mid-November to early December First measurable snow expected in late November or early December
South & Southeast (GA, AL, TX) December to rarely ever Little to no snow; if it occurs, it will be late and short-lived

Cold Severity by City (2025–26)

City Typical First Snowfall 2025–26 Forecast Cold Severity (1–10)
New York, NY Mid-November Late November 4
Chicago, IL Early November Early November 7
Denver, CO Late October Late October 8
Atlanta, GA Mid-December Late December (possible) 3
Seattle, WA Late November Late November 5
Minneapolis, MN Late October Late October 9
Boston, MA Mid-November Mid-November 6

How Cold Will It Get?

Although many regions will see milder averages, cold air outbreaks are still likely during key windows in December and January, especially for the Midwest, Plains, and interior Northeast.

  • Northern states may experience several Arctic air intrusions, with temperatures dropping well below freezing for extended periods.

  • Southern states will mostly avoid deep freezes, though a few brief cold snaps are possible.

Wildcards That Could Shift the Forecast

  1. Strength and timing of La Niña
    A stronger La Niña could amplify cold and snow in the Northwest and northern tier states.

  2. Polar vortex disruptions
    If the polar vortex weakens or breaks, extreme cold could reach farther south than currently forecast.

  3. Blocking patterns over the Pacific
    Persistent ridges can either trap cold air or keep it bottled up. These patterns are hard to forecast far in advance but have major effects.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

When will the first snow fall in the US this year?

Most mountainous areas will see their first flakes in late September or October, while northern states will likely see first snow between late October and mid-November. Southern areas might not see any snow at all.

Will this winter be colder than last year?

For many southern and coastal regions, it will likely be milder. However, northern interior and mountain regions may see a colder and snowier winter, especially if La Niña strengthens.

Where will it snow the most in 2025–26?

Expect above-average snowfall in the Northern Rockies, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast.

Is a white Christmas likely this year?

Chances are above average in traditional snow zones like Chicago, Minneapolis, Denver, Buffalo, and interior New England. Unlikely in the South or coastal Southeast.

What cities are expected to get snow earliest?

  • Minneapolis, MN: Late October

  • Denver, CO: Late October

  • Chicago, IL: Early November

  • Boston, MA / New York, NY: Mid to late November

Final Takeaway

Winter 2025–26 will likely be divided—mild and dry in the South, cold and snowy up North. First snowfall may be slightly delayed in many places, but the middle and later parts of winter are expected to be more active, especially from December through February in traditional snowbelt regions.

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