As the NBA enters Week 12of the 2025–26 season, the landscape is shifting in meaningful ways. While early-season noise has quieted, a clear separation has begun to form between teams built for contention and those merely surviving. With 56 scheduled games packed into the first full week of January, this slate will test depth, resilience, and championship mettle — with playoff positioning already starting to feel tangible.

Here’s what fans need to know — and how we expect the power rankings to evolve.

Read more: NBA Power Rankings Week 11 (2025–26): The Real Contenders Separate From the Pack

NBA Week 12 Power Rankings Forecast
NBA Week 12 Power Rankings Forecast

Top Tier Contenders Holding Ground

San Antonio Spurs — Projected No. 1

San Antonio’s rise to the top was no fluke. After surpassing the Oklahoma City Thunder to lead consensus power rankings in Week 11, the Spurs have proven they can dominate in all phases of the game.

Their Week 12 schedule includes marquee matchups versus powerhouse opponents — including a pivotal home game against the Los Angeles Lakers and a tough road test at Boston — which could solidify their position. What makes the Spurs particularly dangerous is their balance: they defend aggressively, control pace, and remain poised in late-game situations.

Forecast: Barring injury setbacks, San Antonio should maintain or widen their lead, especially if they handle adversity in critical games.

Oklahoma City Thunder — Projected No. 2

Despite slipping slightly in Week 11, OKC still embodies championship DNA. With efficient star play and a disciplined scheme, they’re built for long-term success more than short-term streakiness.

Week 12 brings matchups that favor their structured offense — including games against Charlotte and Utah — positioning them well for a rebound week. Their challenge: avoid sluggish starts and turnovers early in games.

Forecast: Expect the Thunder to reclaim momentum and stay close behind the Spurs.

Teams Poised to Climb

Detroit Pistons — Emerging Threat

Detroit’s strong record and recent impressive performances position them as the sleeper in these rankings. They face a Knicks squad in Week 12 that could slip if Detroit continues to overwhelm early.

With multiple winnable games, the Pistons could crack the top 3 if they maintain offensive rhythm and improve late-game execution.

Houston Rockets — Ready to Rise

Houston’s schedule also sets up nicely. Games against teams like Sacramento and Portland offer opportunities to build confidence and climb the standings. Their dynamic scoring and depth make them a team to watch if they sustain consistency.

Their ability to rise may well hinge on exploiting these softer matchups — then backing it up against top competition.

Teams Likely to Slide Without Adjustments

Phoenix Suns

Phoenix enters a tricky subset of games against gritty, defense-first opponents. If they fail to score efficiently in half-court sets, their ranking could dip. Their Week 12 slate includes hosting Houston and road trips that could expose inconsistencies.

Forecast: A drop of 1–3 spots seems likely unless offensive cohesion improves.

Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee remains physically imposing but has shown cracks against elite defensive fronts. They face a challenging road test in January that could expose spacing deficiencies and turnover issues if adjustments aren’t made.

Middle Tier: Battleground for Playoff Seeding

Teams like the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, and Dallas Mavericks are crammed into a narrow band where a single week could dramatically reshape their postseason outlook.

Boston’s Week 12 includes marquee games against Denver and Detroit — classical litmus tests of their elite status. New York must defend its standing against rising Detroit and Phoenix, while Dallas’s young core battles for consistency.

What Week 12 Reveals About Title Roads

Week 12 is more than just a few games — it’s a bellwether for playoff readiness. Games now reflect strategy over streaks, with defensive discipline, bench scoring, and in-game adjustments taking center stage. Teams that can withstand schedule difficulty and maintain poise under pressure are the ones that will rise.

Key Predictions:

  • Spurs remain dominant — elite defense + composure will separate them from the pack.

  • Thunder rebound — structure and discipline prove sustainable.

  • Detroit and Houston could surprise — favorable schedules and emerging rhythm.

  • Phoenix and Milwaukee risk slipping — offensive inconsistency and matchup issues loom.