Inside Trump’s Secret 28-Point Peace Roadmap: What the Draft Plan Reveals About the Future of the Russia–Ukraine War

A Closer Look at the New 19-Point Peace Framework: How It Marks a Major Shift from Trump’s 28-Point Draft

The sudden departure of Andriy Yermak amid a home raid shakes Kyiv’s inner circle

A Political Earthquake Hidden Behind One Resignation

When news broke that Andriy Yermak—President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s influential Chief of Staff—stepped down shortly after investigators searched his residence, many observers treated it like a corruption scandal. In truth, this was a structural tremor at the heart of Kyiv’s power center. Yermak was not a minister or an interchangeable bureaucrat; he was the President’s gatekeeper, the strategist behind Kyiv’s western messaging, and the architect of the country’s wartime diplomacy.

His exit coincides with a sensitive moment: Ukraine’s negotiations with Washington are entering a “no-return” phase, where the United States seeks a political formula to end the war without escalating military commitment. The power struggle in Kyiv could determine whether Ukraine negotiates from a position of agency—or from desperation.

This article examines the deeper layers of this crisis: the architecture of Ukrainian political power, the growing disconnection between political leadership and the military, competing visions of peace, and the prospects for Zelenskyy’s presidency.

1. Who Is Andriy Yermak, and Why Does He Matter?

The Official Title vs. the Real Job

Formally, Andriy Yermak served as Head of the Presidential Office, a role comparable to a Chief of Staff in the U.S. system. Unofficially, he was Kyiv’s political architect during wartime:

• He coordinated visits to Washington, Berlin, London, and Brussels.

• He built the “Ukraine narrative” in Western media—David vs. Goliath.

• He managed internal appointments and informal networks across ministries.

• He crafted Zelenskyy’s messaging to both Ukrainian citizens and foreign allies.

• He controlled access to the President, shaping decisions from behind the curtain.

To remove Yermak is to amputate Zelenskyy’s political limbs.
Unlike a minister who can be replaced, Yermak was the CEO of political operations.
His departure creates a vacuum no one has ever filled before him.

2. Why the Timing Is Devastating

Ukraine Is Entering a Negotiation Cycle, Not a Military Surge

In 2022–2023, Kyiv negotiated from moral authority and defensive success:
Russia retreating from parts of Kharkiv and Kherson, Western enthusiasm high, sanctions newly biting.

By 2025, the situation is inverted:

• Russia holds entrenched territory across Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Crimea.

• Ukraine is stretched thin: ammunition, manpower, energy infrastructure.

• Western fatigue has set in, from Washington to Berlin.

• Domestic Ukrainian politics shows signs of fragmentation.

At that moment, Ukraine needed a single political brain capable of aligning the Cabinet, military, and allies abroad.
That brain was Yermak.

The raid is not the most important signal

Corruption in Ukraine is not shocking—what shocks the system is who gets targeted and when.
The raid on Yermak’s house was a message:

“The war cabinet is no longer sacred.”

It signals that the wartime presidential mandate is expiring.

3. Internal Kyiv Dynamics: A Three-Way Power Struggle

A. The Presidential Bloc

Zelenskyy’s close circle—communications strategists, legal advisors, media liaisons—was built around Yermak.

Without him, the President becomes exposed.
He will be forced to mediate factions rather than direct them.

B. The Military Bloc

The army is no longer silent.
From Zaluzhnyi to Syrskyi, a quiet narrative has grown:

“This war cannot be won by offensive operations alone.”

Senior officers increasingly support freezing the conflict, preserving the nation rather than chasing maximalist goals.

Military elites see Yermak as a political manipulator, someone who forced unrealistic offensives and sold false expectations to Western donors. His exit is an opportunity:

• Reclaim influence over strategy,

• Introduce realism into negotiations,

• Distance the army from Zelenskyy’s media-centered wartime politics.

C. The Oligarchic Bloc

Despite Western rhetoric, Ukrainian oligarchs remain powerful.
They influence energy infrastructure, logistics, agriculture, and regional governance.

A prolonged war destroys their assets, but also suffocates rivals.
They favor a negotiated end where they preserve capital and territorial concessions are manageable.

Yermak was a firewall between oligarchic networks and Zelenskyy.
His removal opens channels they haven’t had access to since 2019.

A Russian armoured vehicle sits by the side of the road in Brovary, to the east of Kyiv, after being destroyed in an artillery and rocket ambush that caused heavy casualties

4. Strategic Context: Washington’s Changing Priorities

The US No Longer Seeks a Ukrainian Victory

The battlefield has taught Washington a lesson:

• Ukraine cannot defeat Russia conventionally,

• NATO will not intervene,

• Economic warfare has diminishing returns,

• The conflict is a long-term budgetary liability.

The U.S. now focuses on containment, not victory.

Two Paths Discussed in Western Capitals

Option 1: Freeze the Conflict

• Frontlines become a de facto border.

• Ukraine receives NATO-lite guarantees.

• Western aid shifts to reconstruction and cyber defense.

This resembles Korea in 1953, not Germany in 1945.

Option 2: Territorial Concessions for Strategic Umbrella

A harsher form of realpolitik:

• Moscow keeps seized regions.

• Ukraine receives accelerated EU and NATO institutional integration.

• Western states bankroll recovery.

This is the model Yermak was quietly moving toward.

With him gone, Kyiv may lose the only negotiator willing to take political risks.

5. Why Yermak’s Exit Weakens Zelenskyy Internationally

Western leaders understood Zelenskyy as a symbol, not a strategist.
Yermak was the strategist.

• He wrote Zelenskyy’s speeches.

• He coordinated donors.

• He turned military defeats into political narratives.

• He managed relationships with powerful think tanks and lobby groups.

Without Yermak, Kyiv’s diplomacy becomes fragmented and reactive:

• Ministries will pursue individual agendas.

• Parliament will exploit vulnerability.

• NATO partners will push their own terms instead of listening to Ukraine’s.

The U.S. will now negotiate with Ukraine, not with Zelenskyy.

6. Russia’s View: “Time Favors Moscow”

Moscow sees itself as the strategic tortoise:

• Maintain current positions.

• Drain Western political capital.

• Weaponize winter energy shortages.

• Encourage European political fragmentation.

• Push domestic Ukrainian instability.

Every month without a Ukrainian breakthrough is a Russian victory.

The Kremlin understands the message behind the raid:

“Kyiv is not coherent anymore.”

That encourages Moscow to wait—not compromise.

7. The Zelenskyy Question: Personal Survival vs. National Strategy

Volodymyr Zelenskyy entered politics as an anti-corruption reformer.
He survived as a war leader.
But wartime charisma has a half-life.

Scenario A — The Hero Exit

He steps down or limits himself to ceremonial functions once a peace formula is finalized.
He becomes the “Churchill of Ukraine,” not its political casualty.

Scenario B — The Media President Continues

He tries to replace Yermak with another loyalist, intensifies Western lobbying, and prolongs war messaging.

This path is high-risk:

• Opposition parties will accuse him of power monopolization.

• The army will distance itself further.

• Western allies may treat him as a negotiator of last resort.

Scenario C — Forced Departure

If economic collapse accelerates or battlefield losses intensify,
a coalition of parliament, military elites, and technocrats might push him aside.

Not necessarily via a coup—but by making him irrelevant.

Russia vs Ukraine - War or Peace

8. Toward Peace: Ukraine Has Shifted from Strategy to Negotiation Pressure

In 2022 Kyiv negotiated from hope.
In 2025 it negotiates from exhaustion.

Ukraine does not negotiate because it wants to; it negotiates because it must.

Even hawkish voices in Washington admit:

• Ukraine cannot liberate Crimea.

• The Donbas front is a trench war.

• NATO cannot escalate without catastrophic risks.

• Western industries cannot supply Ukraine indefinitely.

Peace is unavoidable.
The only question is how costly.

9. Forecast (6–18 Months): The Most Likely Political Trajectories

1. A Hybrid Peace Deal Will Emerge

Not a treaty—an arrangement:

• Ceasefire zones.

• No-strike energy guarantees.

• Limited NATO commitments.

• Funding for reconstruction.

• Security architecture similar to Finland pre-NATO.

2. Zelenskyy’s Power Will Fragment

He remains president formally, but loses:

• strategic decision-making,

• military influence,

• appointment control.

3. The Military Gains Discreet Political Capital

Not as rulers, but as referees:

• They will insist on realistic territorial lines.

• They will oppose “suicidal offensives.”

• They will shape post-war doctrine.

4. The US Will Become the Primary Peace Broker

Europe is divided:

• Poland hawkish,

• France transactional,

• Germany anxious.

Ukraine will negotiate more with Washington than with Moscow.

5. Internal Kyiv Power Realignment

Expect:

• technocrats replacing ideologues,

• donors pushing anti-corruption boards,

• oligarchs returning to influence via infrastructure and logistics.

Conclusion: A Nation Shifts from War Emotion to Political Arithmetic

The raid on Yermak’s residence and his subsequent exit is not a side story.
It is the punctuation mark at the end of a political chapter.

Ukraine has exhausted its wartime mythos.
The next phase requires:

• cold-blooded negotiation,

• shared responsibility,

• acceptance of hard limits,

• redefinition of sovereignty,

• institutional—not personal—leadership.

The era of charismatic wartime presidency has ended. Ukraine must now learn to govern in the shadow of peace.

FAQs

1. Was Yermak pushed out, or did he resign voluntarily?

While no government admits coercion, the timing—a raid followed by resignation—suggests pressure.
His removal aligns with interests of military leaders and oligarchic factions rather than anti-corruption principles.

2. Will Zelenskyy resign in the short term?

Unlikely. He remains internationally symbolic and domestically popular enough to hold the office.
But his real power will shrink, especially in negotiating matters.

3. Can Ukraine still win militarily?

A conventional military victory is improbable.
Ukraine lacks manpower, industrial output, and long-range strike capabilities unless NATO escalates—an option the West rejects.

4. Will Kyiv accept territorial concessions?

Eventually, yes—not publicly at first, but through ceasefire maps and administrative arrangements.
De jure recognition may take years.

5. What does the U.S. want?

Stability. Not a Ukrainian victory, not a Russian humiliation.
Washington prefers a controlled freeze that limits escalation and restores geopolitical bandwidth.

6. What role will the Ukrainian army play after the war?

It will become a political stakeholder like the Turkish or Israeli model—informal but powerful, shaping security doctrine and political red lines.

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